Indicators of National Water Scarcity

Meadows et al., posit that scarcity is merely a function of two things: demand and availability. Thus, only these two direct factors can be influenced to alter national scarcity levels. Meadows takes a neo-Malthusian standpoint on the water crisis and uses population growth as an indicator of national water scarcity. Under the assumption of fixed resource availability and demand increase as a function of population growth, she uses renewable water resources per capita as an indicator of national scarcity. Due to the underlying assumptions, water scarcity can only be deemed ‘worse’ if there is a larger populations needs to satisfy. However, the key criticisms here derive from the underlying, unrealistic assumption of fixed resource availability. Some countries may have a higher capacity to cope with water scarcity than others e.g. through imports (virtual water).

Through figure 1 (above), Konar and Caylor illustrate the virtual water trading links in Africa. They also demonstrate the negative correlation between the proportion of African nations undernourished and virtual water trade openness, in the graph below.

If we now assess the UNEP map of global water scarcity distribution (below), we can see that the countries facing water scarcity in Africa include: Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Malawi, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe. 

 When comparing this distribution map with Konar and Caylor’s representation of virtual water trading, we can see that most countries importing the most water are also under conditions of water scarcity. These countries include: Algeria, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Libya, and Kenya. South Africa however, exports more water than it imports and is facing water scarcity; we will look at reasons for this in later posts.

There are also some more complex indicators of national scarcity that are used. These may be weighted indicators such as Ohlsson’s, which is a combination of the water scarcity index and the human development index. Ohlsson’s index accounts for capacity to adapt to increasing national water scarcity however, it measures this through proxy indicators, as opposed to direct links.

Sullivan proposes a water poverty index, in which she captures water availability, access to water and sanitation, and time/effort used to access water for domestic usage.

Feitelson and Chenoweth suggest an economic water scarcity index, assessing the cost of sustaining of supplying a nations’ clean, viable water and sanitation services against the backdrop of the nations income. This allows the evaluation of whether a nation can afford to have sustainable water and sanitation services. Some countries may have little or no direct access to water, but if they can sustainably afford to import their water and sanitation supply, they will escape water scarcity.  This index however, relies on the collation of a lot of data, which may not be accessible, especially for poorer nations.

In theory, virtual water trading should be lowering water scarcity as nations share water resources. However, this is not the case, mainly because countries cannot afford to import as much water as they need. The affordability of a populations’ basic needs of water and sanitation seems to be at the core of the water and sanitation crisis in Africa. This is the very reason I’m so interested in the economic water crisis. Arguably, this sheds an economic light on the scarcity paradigm. It implies that scarcity does translate into access. If a nation cannot afford access to water, it may be at risk of becoming water scarce. The affordability of access however, may depend on a number of factors. Conflict of transboundary waters and hydropolitics are just two factors, which may influence the cost of sustainable water and sanitation services.

The next posts will address this situation, specifically in urban Africa! I hope you’re finding this as interesting as I am, and please, feel free to comment with your opinion! I’d love to hear different opinions and arguments on the water and sanitation crisis!